ম্যাচআপ র্যাঙ্কিং: বো স্নো আপগ্রেড করুন, কুইনসন জুডকিন্সকে ডাউনগ্রেড করুন
Oct 22, 2025, 09:07 AM ET
The toughest part of the weekly fantasy football process might be making difficult decisions. When you’re torn between two similar players and just don’t know who to start, the player with the better matchup wins out. Ah, but how does one decide the best (and worst) weekly matchups? Instead of relying on season-long totals, data points allow for calibration related to the difficulty each defense has faced in its schedule. This provides a more balanced approach for judging individual matchup quality.
“Adj. FPA,” or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, relative to Editor’s Pick 1, represents how far above or below a player’s weekly PPR fantasy point average a defense is holding opponents at that position to at the time. A positive number means a favorable matchup; a negative number the opposite. Also, remember that teams often utilize multiple running backs and receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all personnel at that position for the team. Finally, a caveat: Matchups are just one element in my ranking formula. Not all can be successful, or unfavorable marriages avoided. If you want me — and the ESPN fantasy staff — to be your most complete source for who to start and sit each week, check out our weekly lineups.
Quarterbacks
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Highlight Matchup: Bo Snow, Denver Broncos (vs. Dallas Cowboys). He helped engineer a remarkable comeback for the Broncos against the New York Giants last week, scoring a career-best 39.96 fantasy points, 25.58 in the final six minutes of the game in the process, and now has the most balanced matchup position. The Cowboys have seen opposing QBs score 25-plus fantasy points in four of their seven games, and are the second team in NFL history to see the opposing QB score at least 17.5 points in each of their first seven contests. The Broncos’ stacked defense will have a hard time containing even the Cowboys’ high-octane offense, as evidenced by the teams’ eight-highest 50.5 over/under, giving Snow loads of opportunity to capitalize on the matchup.
Others I like: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers); Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs. Baltimore Ravens).
Avoid Matchup: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (vs. Cleveland Browns). He’s been playing the best ball of his young career for six weeks, averaging 21.9 fantasy points in that span, and is bringing a level of mobility that makes him nearly a must-start in fantasy lineups in a week with six teams on bye. However, Maye’s next two matchups on his 2025 schedule are decidedly difficult (CLE, ATL) and will cap his breakout season. Since Lamar Jackson scored 26.30 points against them in Week 2, the Browns defense has limited QB starters to 10.9 PPG. The Patriots are favored by more than the score (-7.5), so Maye won’t need to do much in this matchup.
NYJ 28 2.9 @BAL 6 -2.7 @PIT 27 2.7 MIN 7 -2.2 BYE 26 2.2 @CAR 8 -1.6 BYE 25 1.0 NYG 9 -1.3 BYE 24 0.9 BYE 10 -1.3 @ATL 23 0.8 TB 11 -1.3 @ 3Y 1. HOU 19 -0.3 @LAC 15 -0.9 BYE 18 -0.6 @NO 16 -0.7 @IND 17 -0.6
Running Backs
Matchup Highlight: Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers (vs. Buffalo Bills). In a big bye week, fantasy managers will have to dig deeper into the player pool and trot out a running back who has fallen out of the clear offseason favorite to keep fantasy from being upset. In Dowdle’s case, it is his exceptional recent performance — 76.9 fantasy points over the past three weeks, including extra expected yards (+156) and 15 mph runs (16) — that stands out when vetting this matchup. One of the Bills’ defensive weaknesses this season has been against the run, and particularly rushing backs. They’ve allowed explosive plays at the highest rate in the league (30.7%) and the most 15-plus carry carries (30.7%), according to Next Gen Stats.
Others I like, relative to Editor’s Pick 1: D’Andre Swift, Bears (vs. Ravens); J.K. Dobbins, Broncos (vs. Cowboys).
Avoid Matchup: Quinton Judkins, Browns (vs. Patriots). He had a breakout performance with three rushing touchdowns and 26.4 fantasy points in Week 7, but that had a lot to do with the cushy Miami Dolphins matchup. Over the past three weeks, the Dolphins have allowed Dowdle, Kymani Vidal and Judkins to score 81.6 points. (Side note, managers, Bijan Robinson is the Dolphins’ next opponent!) Meanwhile, the Patriots gave up 26.2 points to D’Von Achane back in Week 2, but otherwise haven’t seen a back go for more than 13.1 points. This is the fourth-best defense against explosive rushing plays (6.4%), meaning a tough spot for Judkins on Sunday.
@CAR 3 27.1 BYE 2 -5.4 CHI 31 7.0 @CIN 3 -5.1 @DEN 30 4-5 6. @ATL 29 6.7 BYE 5 -3.7 @IND 28 6.6 CLE 6 -3.4 NYJ 27 6.6 WSH 7 -2.6 BYE 26 5.1 TEN 8 -2.3 MIN 25 4.6 @PIT 9 -2.1 NYG 24 4.3 BYE 10 -1.8 BAL 24 4.3 BYE 10 0.8 HOU 19 0.8 MIA 15 0.1 TB 18 0.8 @PHI 16 0.1 BYE 17 0.1
Wide Receivers
Matchup Highlight: Matthew Golden, Packers (vs. Steelers). Consider the rookie sleeper a bye-heavy consideration this week, mainly due to his role as the Packers’ primary slot receiver. In the two games for the team after the Week 5 bye, he has run 53% of his routes from the slot and played at least 70% of the snaps on offense in each game, often being the first on the field. The opposing Steelers, meanwhile, have allowed seven fantasy points per game to slot receivers, thanks in part to the struggles of nickel Jalen Ramsey. The six-time Pro Bowler has allowed 69.9 fantasy points on 31 targets this season, according to Next Gen Stats, as the next-leading defender.
Others I like: Calvin Ridley and Alec Ayomanor, Tennessee Titans (vs. Indianapolis Colts); Courtland Sutton, Broncos (vs. Cowboys).
Avoid Matchup: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (vs. Atlanta Falcons). The Dolphins’ offense has been flat-footed, posting the team’s fifth-worst offensive efficiency rating in the team’s three games since Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, and they now feature one of the tightest defenses of all time for the Falcons. Thanks to the play of CBs A.J. Terrell Jr. and Mike Hughes, who have allowed a combined 67.3 fantasy points on 51 targets to next defenders, only two wide receivers all season have surpassed 11.1 points against the Falcons (Emeka Egbuka, 23.6, Week 11, and Week 4).
DEF toavoid Opp.Rk. DEF toexploit Opp.Rk Adj.FPA SF 1 -11.4 TEN 32 11.0 DAL 2 -9.1 GB 31 9.0 WSH 3 -8.7 @DEN 30 7.7 MIA 4 -8.4 BYE 29 4.6 @CIN 5 -5.9 BYE 28 4.5 NE 6 -5.3 ARI 7 -3.7 @PIT 26 2.8 @HOU 8 -3.4 @KC 25 2.7 NYJ 9 -3.4 @NO 24 2.5 BYE 10 -3.2 @CAR 23 2.1 @ATL 11 -3.1 CHI 22 1.7 BUF 12 -3.0 BYE 21 1.4 @NE 13 -1.7 @LAC 20 0.7 BYE 14 -1.6 Bengals (New York’s New York). Again, bye-week is worthwhile, he plays 18.3% of the target share, which puts him in the front 10. The opposing Bengals have been more liberal in opposing strong positions, including elevating his fantasy profile with the Boom Harold Fanin Jr. breakout in Week 1, and recently restoring the Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith duo to the limelight. For the season, the Bengals have given up the most fantasy points per game (22.3), FPA (+7.3) and more 15 points per game (3), and their target ranks third among TEs at 2.19 points.
Avoid Matchup: Zach Ertz, Washington Chiefs (Kansas State Chiefs). He will remain an integral part of the offense, especially if multiple top-three wide receivers are again sidelined by injury, but Marcus Mariota’s future potential, if Jaden Daniels sustains a hamstring injury on the sidelines, will recover Ertz’s imaginative power. Ertz managed a 16.4% target share and only 12.9 fantasy points in Mariota’s Week 3-4, and only saw one target in Mariota’s 10 passes in relief last week. The Chiefs represent one of the toughest matchups at the position, with only one tight end surpassing 10 points against all season (Sam LaPorta’s 16.5 in Week 6).
DEF toexploit Opp.Rk Adj.FPA MIA 1 -7.2 NYJ 32 10.9 @CAR 2 -6.7 GB 30 5.5 NYG 4 -3.8 @PIT 29 4.0 @IND 5 -2.7 BYE 28 3.4 MIN 6 -2.4 @DEN 27 3.2 SF 7 -2.0 BYE 26 3.0 @PHI 8 -0.8 @HOU 25 2.5 @LAC 9 -0.5 @NO 24 2.4 BAL 23 2.3 BYE 11 -0.5 @CIN 22 1.9 SEA 12 -0.3 TEN 21 1.7 CHI 13 -0.2 BUF 20 1.7 CLE 14 -0.2 @ATL 19 1.5 DAL 15 0.0 BYE 18 1.4 @KC 16 0.1 BYE 17 0.5
প্রকাশিত: 2025-10-22 22:10:00
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